Two more Northwoods Assembly Representatives will be facing competition this year. Democrat Jay Schmelling hopes to knock off 4-term Republican Legislator Donald Friske. The 35th district covers Lincoln County and parts of Oneida.
Republican Dan Meyer who represents Wisconsin's 34th will face a re-run. Democrat Paul Tubbs from Rhinelander hopes to pull in a larger percentage of the vote this time around. All of Vilas County and much of Oneida fall within the 34th Assembly District.
GOP State Convention
Wisconsin Republicans head to Stevens Point this weekend for the State GOP Convention. Minnesota Governor and Veep prospect Tim Pawlenty is the keynote guest speaker.
The event promises to be exciting filled with seminars, speeches, wonk, wonk and more wonk. Convention Agenda
The Dangers of Signing Things
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel All Politics Blog is reporting that several Republican legislators voted in favor of the budget deal in spite of the fact that they signed anti-tax pledges from "Americans for Tax Reform."
In our area, Rep. Don Friske (R-Merrill), Rep. Scott Suder (R-Abbotsford) and Rep. Jeff Wood (R-Chippewa Falls) all signed the anti-tax pledge but voted in favor of the budget deal.
The House was set to vote yesterday on the Supplemental Funding Bill. The Bill has been around in several different forms over the last year and a half. Yesterday most of the funds the President asked for were loaded into a bill with 3 amendments attached.
Amendment #1 gave $162.5 billion in funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through the summer of 2009 (Several Billion less than the President asked for)
Amendment #2 placed restrictions on the war in Iraq including a mandatory exit within 18 months, Iraqi monetary support for reconstruction (matched dollar for dollar by the U.S.) and a ban on torture.
Amendment #3 expanded the G.I. Bill. Veterans serving 36 months of active duty would be eligible for the equivalent of a full ride to any public college. This bill would be offset by a surtax. It also added in emergency provisions for the global food crisis and natural disasters.
However in a peculiar but obviously orchestrated legislative maneuver, Amendments 2 & 3 passed but the actual funding appropriated in Amendment 1 failed. 141 members voted yes, 149 voted no, 132 voted present and 12 did not vote.
That created the odd legislative scenario of a spending bill that places restrictions on how money can be spent for the war, but has no money for the war.
Some Republicans felt that the Democrats were forcing their hand on the funding vote, so by voting "Present" they show their displeasure with the Democratic Majority while hypothetically remaining insulated from calls that they don't support the troops.
During the debate House Appropriations Chairman Dave Obey was obviously frustrated by some within the Democratic ranks (probably the Blue Dogs who are strictly adhering to PayGo) at one point calling them, "Budget hawks and budgeteers," who waste time "looking at this or that comma or this or that offset." He argued that these are actual lives and need to be supported.
The Senate Appropriations Committee passed the bill yesterday. The Senate will likely add the funds back into the bill before it comes back to the House for a final vote.
Farm Bill
The Farm Bill passed the Senate 81-15. Both of Wisconsin's Senators, Herb Kohl (D) and Russ Feingold (D) voted in favor of the bill. None of the Presidential Candidates voted. It will now be sent to the President's desk.
In 1976 Democratic hopeful used the "Misery Index" to beat out Gerald Ford for the presidency. Coming out of a billion dollar Vietnam War, 7.27% unemployment at and 8.55% inflation combined to create an average Misery Index of 15.93%. Carter campaigned that any President with a Misery Index that high had no business in the White House. Carter took the Presidency but 4 years later not only did he fail to bring down the Misery Index, he's known for the highest ranking average on the scale at 16.27%. It must have been a rough campaign in 1980.
Fast forward nearly two decades and here we are in the midst of a trillion-dollar war, inflation and prices on the rise while manufacturers slowly shut down, merge or head out of the country. But the Misery Index is actually not that bad, comparatively speaking.
The misery index was a useful political concept in that period, principally because inflation had been particularly severe for nine years, beginning in early 1973. The year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI ) exceeded 5 percent every month. Inflation crested in early 1980 above 14 percent, and over that period it averaged 9 percent. Naturally, the misery index stayed elevated.
But we've seen nothing like that sort of inflation in a generation. Annual price increases have averaged 3 percent for the past 20 years, and the inflation rate hasn't been 5 percent or higher except for 15 scattered months from early 1989 to early 1991.
That remains true today. Soaring gasoline and food costs have caused the inflation rate to climb, but it still hasn't come close to the level that once generated calls for price controls and other extraordinary measures.
Further, IMF Bank's First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky agrees that a return the 1970's-style "stagflation" (inflation coupled with a stagnating economy--including rising unemployment) is unlikely. While in the past higher prices meant folks would use less we are experiencing the opposite. For instance as gas prices go up more oil than ever is being pumped and used. It's not just America; oil is fueling the developing economies in India and China forcing prices to go up but more importantly, remain up. Basically the higher prices are here to stay.
…despite the apparent similarities, 'in this case, however, my Fund colleagues and I are optimistic that this conclusion is not justified, at least not at this time.'
'Nonetheless, a more pessimistic conclusion cannot be discarded out of hand,' he cautioned in remarks prepared for the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
The current commodity price boom is rooted in fundamental demand increases and supply constraints around the world, he said. Therefore, 'the factors underlying the relative price shifts for energy and commodities appear to be fundamental in nature. This means that much, if not most, of the recent price increases are likely to prove durable.
But if the Misery Index isn't on the rise, why are so many feeling so miserable? By many accounts Americans are better off than any other period in history. Unemployment isn't that bad at 5.1%. Inflation isn't horrible at 3.98%. But the rise in food and fuel prices are hitting everyone hard. And they're hitting State and local governments hard. Look no further than Wisconsin's Budget "fix" to see the real credit crises that many are enduring. Why pay what you can't afford today what you can put off until next year? Americans are up to their eyeballs in debt--and fixes that might have worked in the past such as refinancing a home are used up by now. In the past healthcare costs were practically nothing while now we're paying premiums of $600 and up a month. The American Pie is split up into so many more pieces. An increase in fuel prices means the difference in making a mortgage payment and foreclosure. But we're not decreasing our spending. Anywhere.
Back to that Presidential election. While the numbers on the Misery Index probably won't resonate with voters, today we're at 9.08%, high gas prices will and free money definitely will. Forget about the money hemorrhaging in Iraq. Forget about senseless spending on McMansions and gas-guzzlers. And while policy makers banter about a gas tax holiday and a tax stimulus check bringing relief to American families, real solutions to the problem are dropped by the wayside. Nobody in the business of being elected wants to tell voters how to live their lives. But real relief really does come from a lifestyle change. Perhaps the American Dream needs to be re-envisioned; we're biting off way more than we can chew.
Representatives Jerry Petrowski and Donna Seidel will have to fight for their seats this year; they are both facing competition.
Democrat Nate Myszka, former Marathon School Board Member and Aide to Congressman Dave Obey, has thrown his hat into the ring in the 86th Assembly district. Myszka hopes to abate the "economic strain" folks in the 86th are feeling due to rising prices just about everywhere. He also wants to work for affordable health care.
Myszka might be fighting an uphill battle as Rep. Jerry Petrowski is a popular and somewhat moderate Republican. Petrowski has held the 86th Assembly seat for 10 years. This should prove to be an interesting election because Myszka seems organized and ready to go.
Over in the 85th Assembly district Jess Kufahl will give Democratic Representative Donna Seidel a run for her money. The former Marathon County Board member is running on a platform of job creation, tax relief and a focus on renewable energy. Donna Seidel has been in office for the last 4 years. She has been a hardworking and well-liked advocate for health reform and issues related to children and families.
May 5 (Bloomberg) -- The number of suicides among veterans of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may exceed the combat death toll because of inadequate mental health care, the U.S. government's top psychiatric researcher said.
That article blows my mind. Here are people who survived roadside bombs, al-Qaeda, street shootouts, risked kidnapping and lived in all around dangerous conditions 24/7 for 18 months and up. But when they come home, survivors and heroes, it's just too much for one person's soul to bear on their own. I talked with one of my friends about this article. Her husband spent a 1 ½ years taking apart roadside bombs in Iraq. This was 3 or 4 years ago and she says he still thinks about the war everyday. Everyday. I can't imagine coping with the mental pictures of living in a war zone, everyday for the rest of my life.
This tragedy is worsened, however, by knowing that it could be prevented. Lack of funding and the stigma surrounding mental health treatment limits access to mental health facilities and hampers diagnosis and treatment of post-war PSTD and depression.
Community mental health centers, hobbled by financial limits, haven't provided enough scientifically sound care, especially in rural areas, said Thomas Insel, director of the National Institute of Mental Health in Bethesda, Maryland. He briefed reporters today at the American Psychiatric Association's annual meeting in Washington.
Insel echoed a Rand Corporation study published last month that found about 20 percent of returning U.S. soldiers have post- traumatic stress disorder or depression, and only half of them receive treatment. About 1.6 million U.S. troops have fought in the two wars since October 2001, the report said. About 4,560 soldiers had died in the conflicts as of today, the Defense Department reported on its Web site.
Perhaps though, the biggest travesty surfaced this week when news broke that the Veterans Affairs office not only knew about the suicide statistics but was actively trying to cover up the numbers.
The Department of Veterans Affairs' top mental health official said Tuesday he made a poor choice of words when he sent his colleagues an e-mail about suicide data that started out with "Shh!"
Dr. Ira Katz, the VA's mental health director, told the House Veterans Affairs Committee that the e-mail was in poor tone — even though the body contained "appropriate, healthy dialogue" about the data.
"I deeply regret the subject line," Katz said. "It was an error and I apologize for that."
The e-mail claims 12,000 veterans a year attempt suicide while under department treatment. "Is this something we should (carefully) address ourselves in some sort of release before someone stumbles on it?" the e-mail asks.
At a hearing this week V.A. Secretary Jim Peake claimed that the suicide numbers may not be totally accurate.
Peake responded with a list of statistics by age and gender, insisting such data can be incomplete and easily manipulated.
He confronted one of the most heated figures, an estimate that 1,000 veterans a month are attempting suicide.
"I can appreciate that the number of 1,000 suicide attempts a month might be shocking," he said, "but in a system as large as ours ... and consistent with the literature, we might well expect a larger number of attempts than that."
Peake also said that until recently there were no resources devoted to analyzing this type of information.
Peake, answering questions in a hallway after his testimony, said "maybe we should have been looking at this sooner, but we didn't have that infrastructure in place."
He described the data as "erratic," and said "it means nothing until we start to refine it, and make sure we have good data. And that's what the American public deserves, is good data."
While the V.A. continues enduring criticism, additional funding for veterans' mental health sluggishly moves through congress. HR 4053, a bill that would improve mental health treatment--through the V.A., was introduced in the House in November last year but has been in committee ever since. The identical Senate bill, S 2162 passed in the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee in April and is scheduled for debate.
In the meantime, if you or a loved one is living with PSTD or depression there is hope. The toll free Veterans Affairs Department suicide hotline number is 1-800-273-TALK (8255).
Will Montana's primary matter? It’s starting to look like it. Yesterday's primary contests in North Carolina and Indiana handed a hefty win to Obama and a narrow margin of a win to Clinton, respectively. And while Obama pulled ahead in the delegate count, he would still need to win 185 of the remaining 217 delegates and retain all of his superdelegates over the next 6 primaries. Clinton, on the other hand, has no chance of reaching that magic number of 2025 delegates.
With no end in view for the Democratic Presidential primary, perhaps state Democrats should focus their attention on other races. That's what John Nicols writes in his Opinion piece for the Capital Times this week. Nichols points out a 2008 pattern of Republican districts electing Democrats to Congress.
In March, Democrat Bill Foster won the historically Republican Illinois seat that had been vacated by former House Speaker Dennis Hastert.
Then, on Saturday, Louisiana Democrat Don Cazayoux, a young moderate with state legislative experience, snatched a seat that Republicans had held since the 1970s by a 49 percent to 46 percent margin over a well-funded campaign by veteran Republican legislator Woody Jenkins.
The win extends the Democratic majority in the House to 235-198 and it continues a pattern of special-election victories in districts that have traditionally been thought of as Republican strongholds.
Are there more competitive races out there, aside from the Kagen/Gard rematch? Should Sensenbrenner be worried? Petri? Ryan? They seem pretty safe (and didn’t Sensenbrenner's Democratic challenger drop out in January?) but Nicols writes, Wisconsin Democrats should be "intrigued."
Because Obama is popular in Wisconsin. Despite the recent battering the Illinois senator has taken in the media, and from rival Hillary Clinton, he continues to lead Republican John McCain in polls that anticipate a November contest between the two.
Additionally, the sort of knee-jerk racist campaign that the GOP anticipates has failed to sway Wisconsinites in past presidential elections. Notably, while the Willie Horton ads of 1988 swayed many states to Republican George H.W. Bush, Wisconsin voted overwhelmingly for Democrat Mike Dukakis, elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in a competitive contest, and gave Democrats control of the House delegation.
National Republicans are taking heed of this situation.
The dark clouds hovering over House Republicans hold one silver lining for Minority Leader John A. Boehner, GOP Whip Roy Blunt and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole: Expectations for November are now set so low that a loss of fewer than 10 seats could be seen as a sort of victory.
But if Republican losses break into the double digits, the three leaders could find it hard to hold on to their jobs, and rank and file members could throw their support behind a new generation of members — reformers who say their party should be making dramatic changes to prove to voters that it has learned the lessons that cost it the majority in 2006.
Interestingly though, part of the "dramatic changes" in leadership politicos are foreseeing include Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.
Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan
The affable former congressional aide has no designs on a leadership post and declined the chance to challenge a close ally, Rep. Dave Camp (R-Mich.), for the top Republican spot on the powerful Ways and Means Committee next year.
But the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee has become the go-to wonk for the GOP message machine on federal spending and entitlement reform. His outspoken conservative views have occasionally put him at odds with his leaders over budget process reform and earmarks. But he never talks out of school — he's always careful not to leak details of closed-door meetings — making him a trustworthy ally for Republican colleagues.
He could be the policy voice if Democrats tackle health care reform, a tax overhaul or anything else that has an impact on the federal government’s bottom line.
I'm not sure how to read all of this. While it's interesting to think of a few shake-ups, I'm not totally convinced that a few special elections translate to a national pattern-- especially regarding incumbents.
The sluggish U.S. economy is ushering in a new trend in entrepreneurship; Chinese investors are buying and building companies in the United States. Even though U.S. labor is at least 6 times more expensive than the Chinese counterpart and despite the more stringent environmental and safety regulations, investors are finding that the U.S. is hospitable for factories and businesses due to land costs, tax breaks and infrastructure dependability.
[Chinese President of Shanxi Yuncheng Plate-Making Group] Liu spent about $500,000 for seven acres in Spartanburg [South Carolina] -- less than one-fourth what it would cost to buy the same amount of land in Dongguan, a city in southeast China where he runs three plants. U.S. electricity rates are about 75% lower, and in South Carolina, Liu doesn't have to put up with frequent blackouts.
About the only major thing that's more expensive in Spartanburg is labor. Liu is looking to offer $12 to $13 an hour there, versus about $2 an hour in Dongguan, not including room and board. But Liu expects to offset some of the higher labor costs with a payroll tax credit of $1,500 per employee from South Carolina.
Chinese business owners are also looking to lower shipping costs. Transporting raw materials from the U.S. to China and then shipping products back to the United States again is hardly a practical or prudent use of time and fuel.
Chinese manufacturers, particularly those that import parts or raw materials from the U.S., are also looking at setting up assembly operations in Washington. They would save on shipping costs, Shen said. What's more, land, labor and business-operating costs are soaring in China.
Shen said the president of a Shanghai machinery maker told her that opening a plant in eastern Washington might be more economical than expanding in Shanghai's free-trade zone.
"The president told me the assembly line [capability] and quality would be much higher" in the U.S., she said, adding that he hadn't made a final decision.
This trend isn't necessarily new. While China is taking advantage of their new economic clout, foreign financiers in the Middle East have invested in the U.S. for the last half-century. The latest investment trends are proving to be a boon for American workers who are struggling through the current economic slowdown. Some experts wonder if these trends are actually leading to a redrawn global financial map.
The funds, worth an estimated $3 trillion, are expected to quadruple in value by 2015, according to Morgan Stanley. By comparison, the United States' gross domestic product — the value of everything produced in this country — registered $13.8 trillion last year.
So far, the funds have proven a financial godsend for many U.S. companies. Billions of fund dollars have bailed out Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and other financial institutions cratered by the housing and credit crises.
Unlike a purely profit-driven hedge fund or pension fund, though, the funds ring alarm bells in Washington, Brussels and Geneva. The world's financial referees worry that not-so-friendly governments might use their new wealth to take over — or scuttle — banking, energy or telecommunications industries. One country's spare cash could be another's Trojan horse.
The United States, Japan and the European Union also fear that their decades-long financial hegemony is threatened by developing countries.
However, on Main Street, jobs and local economic development trump global politics and xenophobia. You can't argue with getting food on the table.
This story makes me wonder, what would I drive? I don't really think about cars all that much.
Representative Anthony D.Weiner, Democrat of Brooklyn and Queens, drives a 2008 Chevrolet Impala, leased for $219 a month. Representative Michael R. McNulty, a Democrat from the Albany area, gets around in a 2007 Mercury Mariner hybrid, a sport utility vehicle, for $816 a month.
"It gets a little better than 25 miles a gallon," Mr. McNulty said.
Charles B. Rangel, the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is not so caught up in the question of gas mileage. He leases a 2004 Cadillac DeVille for $777.54 a month. The car is 17 feet long with a 300-horsepower engine and seats five comfortably.
"It’s one of the bigger Cadillacs," Mr. Rangel, of Harlem, said cheerfully this week. "I’ve got a desk in it. It’s like an airplane."
The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign ranked every Wisconsin legislator on where they fall in the push for government reform. Several Lawmakers from our area made WDC's "Public Enemies List." According to WDC, these lawmakers, "Regularly stood with the special interests and worked to defeat reforms that would restore power to the general public."
Don Friske (R-Merrill)
Dan Meyer (R-Eagle River)
Jerry Petrowski (R-Marathon)
Scott Suder (R-Abbotsford)
Jeff Wood (R-Chippewa Falls)
Both Russ Decker (D-Weston) and Marlin Schnieder (D-Wisconsin Rapids) are considered "bystanders" who "Supported some reform measures but did not actively push for changes limiting special interest influence and cleaning up state politics."
However, several central Wisconsin legislators are ranked as "Public Allies"; lawmakers who "Supported most but not all reform proposals."
Roger Breske (D-Eland)
Pat Kreitlow (D-Chippewa Falls)
Julie Lassa (D-Stevens Point)
Louis Molepske Jr.(D-Stevens Point)
Donna Seidel (D-Wausau)
Amy Sue Vruwink (D-Milladore)
The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign scored each legislator by measuring four specific votes in the Assembly and four votes in the Senate. Details can be found here: WDC Ranks Legislators on Political Reform
It's that time, almost. Many local candidates are announcing their runs for reelection and their opponents are slowly coming out of the woodwork. I had an opportunity to chitchat with a couple political savvy Wisconsinites; they spilled it--so I'm spilling it…well most of it anyway.
If you live in West Central Wisconsin, you're in for one heck of a race. Republican Representative Terry Moulton out of the 68th faces some formidable competition in Democratic opponent Kristin Dexter. Dexter is an active community member and she currently sits on the Altoona School Board.
Representative Mary Williams will face some competition. Democrat Judy Reese is throwing her hat back into the 87th Assembly District. Reese made an unsuccessful bid for the seat two years ago. Reese focused on healthcare and education but lost to Dewey Floberg in the primary. Williams pulled in just enough votes to retain her seat in November. It could be another close race.
Another campaign replay is expected in Wisconsin's 69th. Democrat and Mayor of Owen Tim Swiggum hopes to garner more support this time around against Representative Scott Suder. Suder has held the seat since 1998. Suder's publicized domestic issues might be a stumbling block for him but his pro-life, pro-guns stance makes him popular with the very rural district. Swiggum has lots of legwork ahead of him.
There are a few more budding campaigns in our area and I promise to update on those by next week.
These more northerly races are an interesting animal. Opponents especially have fundraising gaps to make up and generally receive little state party money. If you look at the break up of the districts (PDF file), they cover more land than the densely populated south and gaining name recognition can be a struggle. It should be interesting to see how this shakes out especially considering the Congressional races, the Presidential race and the trends we saw in 2006.
Republican John Gard is hoping to come out swinging against Democratic Representative Steve Kagen. As of April 23, Gard raised $555,046 for the 2008 congressional race. But compared to Kagen's $1,069,432 Gard might be fighting an uphill battle on the money front. However he does have history on his side.
Democrats believe they can "beat history" in the upcoming
congressional elections, accomplishing the rare feat of picking up
seats two years after winning a large number of races in the midterm
elections.
But to do that, Democrats also may have to beat the history of
Wisconsin's 8th Congressional District, traditionally a Republican
stronghold.
The last time a party picked up seats after a "wave election" was
1976, when Democrats gained one seat after winning 49 two years earlier
in the aftermath of the Watergate scandal, Rep. Chris Van Hollen,
chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, told
reporters last week at a breakfast hosted by the Christian Science
Monitor.
Gard is expected to announce his run today.
Gard, a former
state Assembly speaker, has scheduled a 1:30 p.m. announcement at Bay Beach Park in Green Bay and
a 3:30 p.m. announcement in Pierce Park in Appleton.
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