I feel like it has been awhile since I've posted, but now I am finished with the semester and ready for an exciting weather season! We definitely had an interesting day today with some showers, thunderstorms, hail, strong winds, sunshine and if you noticed the clouds today - they were really cool!!! So, I thought I would go into a more detailed explanation of what happened today because it was out of the ordinary - well the environment in which these "storms" formed was out of the ordinary because we were seeing a different set of ingredients. Typically we look for warm, moist conditions at the surface ahead of a cold front or another lifting mechanism. However, the situation today was one where the surface was fairly dry and there wasn't a lot of warm air pushing into the area. The one ingredient we did have was a weak cold front and with sunshine this morning this provided enough instability for showers and an isolated thunderstorm to develop. Now these showers and storms were not what we would consider "surface-based", but rather "elevated" because they developed higher up in the atmosphere where there was more energy to sustain them. In additions to these conditions, winds were blowing out of the west-northwest ahead of the cold front and north-northwest behind the front. Remember how I mentioned that the surface was pretty dry - dew points today were only in the 30s! Well, this drier air helped to create the gusty winds that we had. The reason is because winds increase with height and since it was drier at the surface, the stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere were able to "mix" or move down to the surface due in part to less friction. Temperatures in the middle to upper-levels of the atmosphere were below freezing and this allowed for hail to form. This is why we saw small hail, even up to 1" diameter farther west along with winds up to 50 mph or more! In order for a thunderstorm to be considered "severe", hail must be 3/4" in diameter (dime-sized) and winds must exceed 58 mph. There weren't too many warnings today, a few in the far north (Ashland/Iron counties ) and a couple west of the viewing area towards Eau Claire.
As for storm reports, there was some small hail with one storm that passed through the Wausau area but it was generally smaller than pea-sized. Winds gusted up to 52 mph in Marshfield and even knocked down a few trees! There were even some trees down in Fifield. In Minnesota, there were shingles blown off of rooftops and a boat lift was even blown into a tree in Cass county. If you took any pictures of the day's events, feel free to send them!!! That is all for tonight, have a great night!
Something interesting arrived in the mail earlier this week. A reader came across some odd weather information in a popular fiction book "Are You Afraid of the Dark" by Sydney Sheldon. The data was in the "notes" section at the end of the book. Here is the quote:
"The danger of a devastating confrontation between the United States and Russia became so great that in 1977, a U.N. treaty against weather modification for hostile purposes was signed by the United States and Russia. That treaty did not signify the end of weather experimentation. In 1978, the United States launched an experiment that created a downpour of rain over six counties in northern Wisconsin. The storm generated winds of one hundred seventy-five miles per hour and caused 50 million dollars in damages...
...The weather catastrophes described in the body of this novel have all happenned."
The catastrophe did happen but it is extremely unlikely that it had anything to do with weather modification experiments. In addition, some of the facts in this case are wrong. The damaging wind storm referenced above occurred on July 4th, 1977. If there were weather modification experiments occurring in 1978, they didn't have anything to do with the big storm in 1977. The storm was a special type of straight-line wind storm called a "derecho". Here are a couple good discussions about this storm: This one from the SPC and this one from the NWS Green Bay with some pictures.
As you can see from the analysis, this derecho didn't just occur over northern Wisconsin. It began in Minnesota where it produced 100mph wind gusts, then peaked in strength over Price county Wisconsin where winds reached 115 mph, and continued all the way into lower Michigan. It was a spectacular storm but not unnatural. Derechos occur somewhere in the U.S. almost every year. Atmospheric conditions on that day were ripe for the formation of a derecho - no weather modification needed.
For those if you who don't know about ELF, here is a very good wikipedia article about it, and it even has a picture of the Clam Lake installation! Even more detailed information can be found in this Navy PDF along with a map that shows where the Clam Lake antenna lines are. ELF stands for Extremely Low Frequency. We are talking about electromagnetic radiation - the same stuff that you use to get TV, radio, and cell phone signals. TV, radio, and other wireless communications use higher frequencies. ELF is used to communicate with submarines because it is the only type of signal that will penetrate deep into the ocean. ELF was used to communicate with nuclear submarines that can stay underwater for months at a time. Nuclear subs are a valuable naval weapon only if they remain hidden and do not have to surface for communication purposes. I have driven past the Clam Lake ELF and fished around that area. I always thought it was neat that all the nuclear submarines in the U.S fleet were getting messages from those long "power" lines (28 miles long). I digress. The main point is that ELF has nothing to do with weather modification. ELF affects the weather about as much a TV signals do, which is pretty much nothing. If the Soviets did say they were using ELF to modify the weather, it was probably a mis-information campaign to hide the real reason - communicating with nuclear subs. Mis-information campaigns from the cold war were common. Perhaps some of you remember the DARPA psychic experiments. The Soviets successfully convinced the U.S. military that they were using psychics as spies, so DARPA began a psychic program, spent millions of dollars, and found out what we all know, psychics are not reliable sources of information.
It is also true that the U.S engaged in weather modification experiments - such as cloud seeding. After a couple decades, it could not be proven conclusively that the weather modification worked or was cost effective. Congress did not want to waste anymore taxpayer money and the experiments were ended in the 1980s. Some countries are still trying though - including China which plans to keep clouds and rain away from the Summer Olympic games - we'll see how that goes.
Interesting side note. There has been a long history of anti-nuke and environmentalist vandalism at the Clam Lake ELF site. Many environmentalists think it is ruining the forest and mutating animals and such things. I have been around that area. Everything seems pretty normal. It was operational for more than 20 years with no noticeable signs of weird transformations. Anti-nuke activists wanted to destroy it in order to prevent nuclear war. They would sneak in at night and topple some of the transmission lines. While their motive might have been pure, their actions were probably quite reckless. What if a nuclear sub was receiving a message "do not fire nuclear weapons at the USSR" and that message was disrupted - by someone toppling a transmission line in Clam Lake. I shudder.
Some very disturbing Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) news today. I had previously reported the effort to list the Polar Bear as a "threatened" species under the Endangered Species Act - because of the effects of AGW. It has now happened, according to this press report. Why is this disturbing? First of all, Polar Bear populations are stable and much higher than in the recent past. They are being listed as threatened only because of over-hyped predictions of catastrophic global warming that might occur 50 or 100 years from now. Recent news that some climate researchers expect slight cooling of the earth over the next decade, and that the computer models are flawed, and that researchers need much more computing power to produce reliable models, should give you extra pause. If the threshold for listing a species as threatened based on what might occur 50 years from now, we might as well just put them all on the list.
Secondly, it is disturbing because (as I reported last month) many environmental organizations are lining up to sue everyone under the sun in order to protect the Polar Bear. According to the article I linked above, the government is apparently going to protect energy producers from lawsuits. Unfortunately, the lawsuits will be widespread and hit every industry because every industry, in fact every person in the world, uses energy.
Thirdly, this is disturbing because it widens the scope of the Endangered Species Act. The supposed future cause of the declining Polar Bear population is worldwide human activity and AGW. That means everyone in the world will be subject to lawsuits in order to protect the bear. It might start in the U.S. with lawsuits against GM, John Deere, Ford, GE, etc...but what if these companies produce most of their goods overseas? The long arm of lawsuits will follow the trail to wherever goods are made. Remember, even if environmental organizations sued U.S. companies into the stone age, it would not protect the Polar Bear (in this scenario), because China now produces more carbon dioxide than the U.S., so the lawsuits would have to expand to the world.
Now you might think I am blowing things out of proportion. Perhaps. Only time will tell. In the past, many environmental groups have chosen confrontation and lawsuits instead of cooperation and creative solutions.
What could be done instead? Give incentives for people to use alternative energy. Provide massive tax breaks for the purchase of solar panels and electric cars. Boone Pickens should not have to pay any taxes on the purchase of wind turbines for his huge wind power project - Mesa Energy. By the way, he just announced a purchase of 667 wind turbines from GE. Nor should he have to pay any property taxes for the land on which the wind farm rests. If you want people to switch to alternatives, give them incentives.
On the subject of AGW some stories just make me scratch my head. I end up with an inquisitive - "and"? Such as - is there anything else, and what is the point? Here is a report that informs us that the earth - the biosphere - changes as the temperature changes. Some of the changes: "shrinking glaciers, changing river flows, melting permafrost, increased coastal erosion, and warming lakes and rivers." It doesn't seem all that earth-shattering that glaciers would melt when the temperature rises. The temperature has been rising ever since the last ice age and glaciers have been melting. Nothing new here. Also there is this story that lake Baikal in Russia is warming up as the world temperature goes up. I am unsure why it wouldn't warm up. Sure, it is the deepest freshwater lake in the world, but it is not like it is isolated from the air or surrounding rivers.
Something else that caught my eye last week was the eruption of a Chilean volcano. Neat satellite picture here. It reminded me that natural processes affect the climate in large ways as well. This volcano will probably not have a large affect on the climate, but some eruptions have. The eruption of mount Pinatubo cooled the planet by 1 to 2 degrees for a couple of years in the early 1990s.
Here in Northcentral Wisconsin you are probably thinking the scientists who expect slight cooling over the next decade are correct. Five out of the last six months have been below normal and this month will most likely be the 6th out of the last seven. Thankfully temps will be a little warmer today and tomorrow. The mercury should reach the 70 degree mark today and the upper 60s to around 70 on Friday. A cold front moving through the area late Friday will produce a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms as well as usher in some cooler weather for the weekend. High temps on Saturday will be in the low to mid 60s (with a gusty northwest wind) and the linger in the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday. If you are hoping for some heavier rainfall, it looks like a chance will develop in Monday and Tuesday of next week. Right now it looks like amounts could be in the quarter to half inch range.
Some exciting news for all you web surfers out there. WAOW.com will be undergoing a re-design. In a couple short weeks you will see a new design with new functionality. The blog will remain - so no worries there. I'll let you know as the date draws closer.
As mentioned earlier this week, reading the WAOW weather blog keeps you on the leading edge of science/weather/space/environmental news. How many times have I said high oil prices are here to stay? A couple times a month at least through the first part of this year. Here is an article from wired.com that confirms my point. Sure, there could be somewhat of a bubble in the price of oil, but even if the bubble burst, I doubt oil would drop below $90 per barrel. Which means we would still be paying $2.50 to 3.00 per gallon of gas. What is more likely is that hurricane activity will drive the price oil over $130 a barrel this Summer or Fall.
Something else on the horizon that could drive up the price of gas, oil, and electricity is climate change legislation. Earlier this week, even John McCain came out with a "cap and trade" AGW scheme. He would like to cut carbon dioxide emissions by a significant margin as early as 2012 and have the primary goal to cut emissions 60% below 1990 levels by 2050. Cutting that much by 2050 will be a piece of cake, so it is a good political move. The short term cap and trade scheme is not such a good political move (even though all the candidates are in favor) because it will cause a dramatic jump in prices. If climate change legislation goes into place early next year with the new administration, gas prices could easily reach $6.00 or $7.00 per gallon by the summer of 2009 (next year). Your electricity bill could double as well. Plane tickets could jump as well because new climate treaties might include the airline industry. Past treaties exempted the airline industry. Right now, flying out of CWA to Vegas, LA, or New York, costs around $400 even a little more. New climate legislation could push that price up to $700 or $800 per ticket. I am all for cutting emissions of every type of pollution, but I would rather see investment into alternative energy and tax breaks for those who purchase solar panels or electric cars. Incentives rather than punishment.
What about taxing the 'evil' oil companies and have them pay for it? Aren't they making record profits? The state of California is active in promoting alternative energy so they keep tabs on the price of oil and each component. Here is the latest tabulation. Throughout 2008, in the category of "Distribution Costs, Marketing Costs, and Profits", we find that it is only averaging about 10 cents out of a total cost of $3.90 per gallon (in California). So the actual profit the 'evil' oil companies are making is probably 5 cents per gallon at best. So don't fall for this idiotic idea that taxing the 'windfall profits' will do anything to the price of gas. Even if the government took every last profit from the oil companies and used it to 'offset' the high price of gas, it would save you a nickel at the pump. Worse yet, the taxes would disproportionately penalize U.S. oil companies. If you want to start buying your gas from Lukoil, a Russian company that already has gas stations in parts of the U.S., then go ahead and support the windfall profits tax. If you want your 401K retirement plan to lose value, then go ahead and support a windfall profits tax. We are all in this together. Trying to penalize one person or company in order to benefit another will have un-intended consequences and come around to 'bite' us all. As I have mentioned many times in the past, every individual has a lot of power to minimize the impact from high energy prices. Make your house more energy efficient. Move closer to work. Drive a fuel efficient or electric car. The list is endless.
Enough punditry. How about the forecast? It now looks a little better for the weekend. Rain chances are slim and temps should be a little warmer than what was forecast a couple days ago. We will have plenty of sunshine today and high temps in the low 60s. The mercury should hit the upper 60s tomorrow and the mid 60s on Friday before dropping into the low 60s for the weekend. High temps should rebound at least into the mid 60s early next week. There is a slight chance of showers all the way from Thursday evening through Sunday but any showers that develop should be light and widely scattered. There should be plenty of opportunity to get outside over the weekend.
As Brian mentioned in last night's blog post, this year is a late planting season. I have not moved my lemon tree outside, planted corn or tomatoes yet, or even put the screen windows on my house. Temps are too cool. I am unsure if I will even be able to do these things next week because the cool trend will likely continue. It looks like there will be a chance of frost Thursday morning and on a couple of mornings next week. It is a little annoying because in the last few years temps have warmed up much faster and I could plant things early. This year I am still waiting to plant the warm weather plants like peppers, tomatoes, and corn. Things that are already growing in my garden are radishes, peas, and spinach. I plan to plant broccoli very soon.
One nice thing about the cool temps is that there is not much threat of severe weather. So far this year we have experienced only one day with severe thunderstorm warnings. That was on April 25th when there was some large hail in the area. As you can see in this photo from Donna Witt of Marathon City, it was pretty large hail, up to baseball sized.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this evening in the area but only a slim chance of anything severe. It just isn't warm or humid enough. And like I mentioned earlier, this is a good thing. If we could go all summer without any severe weather that would be fine by me, even if it was a bit boring. The problem is that severe thunderstorms typically bring quite a bit of rainfall. It is not usual in the summer for us to receive slow all-day rainfall. Thunderstorms bring most of the rain. So if a little bit of severe weather prevents us from slipping into another drought, I would say it is an even trade-off. The Thunderstorms tonight could bring 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain to much of the area.
The thunderstorms this evening will be kicked up by a cold front. This front will cause winds to shift to the northwest by tomorrow and the northwest wind will continue, for the most part, through the end of the work week and into the weekend. This means below normal temps will continue. It won't be drastically cold, just cool enough to notice. High temps on Wednesday will only be in the upper 50s to low 60s. The mercury will rebound into the mid 60s for Thursday and Friday, then drop back into the upper 50s for the weekend. Along with the cool temps and northwest wind, off-and-on showers could develop for Saturday and Sunday.
That is it for the blog today. I have a school visit that demands the rest of time. To close, how about a viewer photo with some real nice color. This is a picture of an Oriole taken by Tom Brunette of Marshfield.
Plant or not to plant?..that is the question. This morning we had yet another heavy frost across the area as temperatures dipped near or below freezing. With cooler weather still upon us...I suggest holding off on planting any sensitive flowers or plants. We warm up a little bit tomorrow, but overall temperatures will be cooler than normal. Average highs are now pushing into the upper 60's and lows in the 40's. Nightime temperatures this week will be in the 30's, but if on any given night we see a lot of clearing and light winds, temperatures could drop below that freezing mark of 32 degrees. Here is a map of the last freezes on average across the state.
You can see much of the area has a few weeks to go. I have also noticed the leaves on the trees are a little behind too. I wasn't quite here yet last year at this time, but when I strolled into town a year ago this coming weekend, mature leaves were already in full force. If the month of May ends up with below normal temperatures, it would be the 4th month in a row!! As Justin mentioned in previous posts, one good thing about the cooler temperatures is the lack of severe weather.
While we were dealing with cooler than normal temps and gusty winds over the weekend many other locations in the country were dealing with tornadoes. Here is a news websites with some photos and videos of some of the worst hit areas. Weather.com also has some good reporting on the storms. The most salient point is that 22 people were killed by this weekend's twisters. According to the SPC, 96 people have been killed by tornadoes so far this year. Also according to the SPC this is already 15 more than last year. Thankfully we have had no killer tornadoes yet here in Wisconsin. In recent years, Wisconsin has been able to avoid most fatalities from tornadoes. I can't remember the last time we had a tornado death here in the Channel 9/34 viewing area (includes 22 counties). I chalk it up to Wisconsin residents taking severe weather warnings seriously. Always remember to assess your situation and surroundings when a severe weather WATCH is issued. Be sure you know where to go in case a WARNING is eventually issued.
We haven't had to worry too much about severe weather so far in 2008 because temps have been much cooler than normal. If it isn't hot and humid, the chance of severe weather will not be very high. This week will be another cool one so severe weather is not too likely, but there is still a chance of thunderstorms. Two different strong cold fronts will sweep through Northcentral Wisconsin during the week and bring a chance of rain. The first front will move through Tuesday evening and could bring up to a half inch of rain to much of the area. The second front will move through Friday night and could produce a quarter inch of rain. Both fronts will reinforce the cool trend. High temps will hit the low 60s today and the upper 60s tomorrow, then drop into middle and upper 50s on Wednesday with a gusty northwest wind. The mercury should rebound a little into the low 60s on Thursday and Friday before dropping into the upper 50s for the upcoming weekend. At least it doesn't look like too much rain over the weekend. I am only anticipating a few widely scattered showers at this point.
As a reader of this blog you probably already know you are on the cutting edge of technology/science/energy/space/climate news. Well, more evidence of this shows up everyday. As you know, I have been promoting an all-electric economy for sometime now. I haven't completely dissed biodiesel, ethanol, and hydrogen but I know there are limitations. More people are starting to agree. This article claims the hydrogen economy is 40 years away. California is promoting it's "Hydrogen Highway" but I doubt it will ever come to fruition. The battery and ultracapacitor technology needed to replace our liquid fuel cars is getting dramatically better. Hydrogen proponents think the needed battery tech is years away, which is untrue, Tesla is already shipping a car that gets over 200 miles per charge. The plain fact is that it will be monumentally easier to develop better batteries than to develop the entire infrastructure to produce and deliver hydrogen around the country. Also, in 40 years our technology will be so advanced that hydrogen fuel cells will seem quaint and historical. One of the main problems in getting more people to focus on electric instead of ethanol and hydrogen is that politicians are behind the latter 2. Once politicians make big speeches supporting a particular line of funding and research they don't like changing course because it makes them look bad.
On the price of gas and oil, you are also aware of the possibility of $5 dollar a gallon gas or more. As a reader of the blog you know that a poorly placed major hurricane this summer could disrupt supplies. You know that we won't be seeing $1 or $2 gas anytime soon. As you can see in this article, more people are aware of this possibility. Michael Novogratz thinks gas could hit $10 per gallon (he also agrees that the super climate Armageddon portrayed by AGW proponents, is unlikely to happen or have too much effect on the economy) and is forecasting a big boom in green technology, and that is the silver lining of high energy prices. You can make a lot of money investing in the wide array of alternative energy technology. It is prime time for inventors as well. If you want to be the next billionaire, just invent a better solar panel, or a better water heater, of a better battery. You get the picture.
Here is a neat story of some college students and an inventor doing just that. They are developing a thermal solar system that will be 5 to 10 cheaper than most solar installations available today. They call a 3-D solar thermal panel. I am not sure what this exactly means and the article doesn't explain things too in depth. Still, I wish them luck. Their system would use solar collectors to warm water and then use that water to heat your house.
Another line of inventions I am keeping an eye on are plug-in hybrid cars. Here are some pics of the cool new Fisker Karma. Apparently this will be available by the end of next year at a price of $80,000. Don't worry, I have sticker shock as well. It is alright. New technology always starts out expensive and then rapidly comes down into our price range once it is more widely adopted.
Energy saving methods even extend into places you might not expect. Here is a little write-up about a new water filtration device that could save a lot of energy in the near future. It works on on the principle of centrifugal force instead of regular filtration that requires water to be forced through a filter.
Even the process of studying the climate itself could become much more energy efficient with the use of specialized supercomputers. By using custom ASIC processors, a 10 petaflop computer needed to simulate clouds within the long term climate models, could be 100 times more energy efficient than regular supercomputers. If you read between the lines you will notice that current long term climate models do not forecast cloudcover changes! This is another reason to be slightly skeptical of the global warming disaster scenarios.
What is going on with the rain this morning? An area of light rain developed last evening and continued through mid morning in much of central Wisconsin, especially in the southeastern part of the area around Stevens Point, Waupaca, Wittenberg, and Rosholt. It turned out rather grey and dreary in the southeast, but not to worry, later this afternoon the rain should end, but not before a couple tenths of an inch in a few spots (here in Wausau it was only 0.05"). It was a weak trough of low pressure than hung together in the face of high pressure and dry air that brought the rainfall. This afternoon high pressure should reassert control and clear the clouds out a bit for tonight and tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening (mainly after 6pm) another storm system will bring a chance of rain, some higher wind, and cooler temps. The mercury should hit 60 tomorrow but then only reach the low 50s on Sunday. The chance of rain on Sunday is about 60% and amounts could be around a quarter inch. On Monday the sunshine should return but then another storm will bring a chance of rain back for Tuesday. The rain, possibly heavy, could continue into Wednesday or Thursday. The extended computer model forecast is a little muddled, so stay tuned to Megan Syner's weekend forecast to find out if the middle of next week will be wet and cool or if the sunshine will return by Wednesday.
Another story that has been a bit muddled is La Nina. It developed rather rapidly and unexpectedly in February of 2007 and lasted longer than most forecasts predicted. Now it is showing signs of weakening. You can read the latest discussion here.Figure 2 shows that 3 of the four NINO regions are still below normal. Looking at Figure 4 you might think that La Nina has already ended, but what really matters is the surface temp. Figure 4 shows the total heat content of the surface all the way down to 300 meters. The total heat content has gone positive, but at the surface it is still below normal and it is the surface temp that affects the weather. Thus La Nina is still there but almost done. Most of the computer models depicted in Figure 5 indicate near neutral conditions as we head into the summer. The official classification for La Nina is -0.50 (or lower) for 3 months in a row. From -0.50 and +0.50 is considered neutral. What does it mean for us? The effects of La Nina and El Nino are less pronounced in the summer than in the winter, so there might not be much deviation from normal. Considering that La Nina seemed to bring cooler than normal temps over the last few months, perhaps temps will be back up to normal this summer as it weakens. It is always interesting to see how a couple of the computer models seem to go off on a tangent (Figure 5) - certainly a reminder of the limitations that yet remain when trying to forecast the long term.
"Computer analyses of global climate have consistently overstated warming in Antarctica, concludes new research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Ohio State University. The study can help scientists improve computer models and determine if Earth's southernmost continent will warm significantly this century, a major research question because of Antarctica's potential impact on global sea-level rise."
I hate to break it to the researchers but the GCMs have consistently over-forecast temperatures for the entire globe. Temperatures did warm up during the 1980s and 1990s, but not as much as the GCMs predicted. Temps have now fallen slightly over the last 10 years (since 1998). The GCMs predicted continual and dramatic rises in temperatures and still do today. Clearly the computer models need some work, and global Armageddon due to AGW is not as certain as Al Gore would have you believe. Perhaps is is the recent poor performance of the GCMs that has prompted some climate modelers to call for a Manhattan style project for climate forecasting. They are calling for a 100 petaflop supercomputer to do climate modeling. Just so you know, the top supercomputer in the world right now only runs at about 1/2 petaflop. So the climate modelers are calling for a huge investment. I would rather see those billions of dollars go into alternative energy research and implementation. I think it would do more good in the long run.
Speaking of alternative energy, there is more good news. Sunrgi, a California company has produced a new solar cell that it says will be competitive on price with fossil fuels. Hmmm. I don't think that is too hard nowadays with the price of oil hitting 125 per barrel.
It was definitely a chilly start to the day with temperatures starting out in the upper 20s across the far north which lead to some heavy frost in spots. The average last frost in the Northwoods is typically mid to late-May so it is not uncommon to see those cool temperatures this time of year. We did have a good bit of sunshine today and that helped temperatures climb into the lower 60s but that is still below average for this time of year. Actually, we are just under 2 degrees below average for the month so far which makes this the 4th month in a row where at least the overally average temperature has been below average. In January we were 0.7 degrees above average overall. It'll be interesting to see how much longer this trend continues, since these types of patterns tend to go in cycles its only a matter of time before we see warmer than average temperatures, right?! Only time will tell...but La Nina conditions will continue to weaken. If you want to read more about the latest La Nina/El Nino conditions, go to this website and check it out! It thought the discussion was rather interesting myself!
The good news is that we are finally seeing more moisture - water levels are higher, grass is greener and hopefully this will lead to an awesome growing season! If you are anxious to get out on the water and do some fishing this weekend you may have to dodge a few showers, especially later Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures will stay on the cool side with readings only in the 50s so make sure you bring a sweatshirt or two along with the rain jackets to stay both warm and dry! As we go into next week we may continue the cooler than average trend will continue and after checking out some of the longer range models we may stay around to slightly below average towards the 3rd week of May! Before I call it a night, I thought this story was rather interesting about what happened to a storm chaser in Texas - you can read the story by clicking on this link!
That is all for tonight, have a fantastic evening!
I don't have a lot of time for a super blog post today because I was busy upgrading our computer systems here at the weather office. The most important thing I want to cover is the price of oil. OK, I know you are rolling your eyes. I have beaten this topic like a dead horse (aside: anyone know where that saying comes from? Why would anyone beat a dead horse, I guess it is more ethical than beating a live horse). I just want to make sure everyone knows and realizes that cheap gas is not coming back anytime soon. Stop dreaming about it now! If we are lucky, new wells will come online, OPEC nations will be peaceful, and the price of oil will drop below $100 a barrel later this year. Even if it drops down to $90 a barrel, we are still talking about $3.00 per gallon of gas. What is more likely is that Iran will be combative, unrest will disrupt oil coming out of Nigeria, a couple hurricanes will disrupt production in the gulf of Mexico this summer and the price of oil could jump to $150 to 200 per barrel, which would translate to $4.50 to 5.00 per gallon of gas (maybe more). Dr. Gray from Colorado State predicts a 69% chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. this year, so you had better be prepared for higher gas prices. No amount of whining is going to help. Taxing the oil companies will only make things worse. It is time to make dramatic changes in the way you get around if you want to keep money in your pocket. I mentioned electric vehicles earlier in the week, but there are also the old standbys of car pooling and public transportation.
On the positive side, investment in wind and solar energy continues on a hot pace. The problem with solar panels is that they are expensive. Thankfully some MIT students are making new solar products with a focus on cost. Their solar collector is meant to be cheap, durable, and easy to set-up, but it is not meant for home use, since it concentrates the sun's power up to 1,000 times. Businesses and utilities will benefit the most.
I hate to end on a down note, but it still looks like some rain for the weekend, beginning late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. I put the chance at 50%. Even if the rain misses our area, it will still be cool and breezy (especially on Sunday). High temps will reach the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and only 50 on Sunday. You might want to plan some indoor activities for Mother's Day.
I feel like it has been awhile since I've posted, but now I am finished with the semester and ready for an exciting weather season! We definitely had an interesting day today with some showers, thunderstorms, hail, strong winds, sunshine and if you noticed the clouds today - they were really cool!!! So, I thought I would go into a more detailed explanation of what happened today because it was out of the ordinary - well the environment in which these "storms" formed was out of the ordinary because we were seeing a different set of ingredients. Typically we look for warm, moist conditions at the surface ahead of a cold front or another lifting mechanism. However, the situation today was one where the surface was fairly dry and there wasn't a lot of warm air pushing into the area. The one ingredient we did have was a weak cold front and with sunshine this morning this provided enough instability for showers and an isolated thunderstorm to develop. Now these showers and storms were not what we would consider "surface-based", but rather "elevated" because they developed higher up in the atmosphere where there was more energy to sustain them. In additions to these conditions, winds were blowing out of the west-northwest ahead of the cold front and north-northwest behind the front. Remember how I mentioned that the surface was pretty dry - dew points today were only in the 30s! Well, this drier air helped to create the gusty winds that we had. The reason is because winds increase with height and since it was drier at the surface, the stronger winds higher up in the atmosphere were able to "mix" or move down to the surface due in part to less friction. Temperatures in the middle to upper-levels of the atmosphere were below freezing and this allowed for hail to form. This is why we saw small hail, even up to 1" diameter farther west along with winds up to 50 mph or more! In order for a thunderstorm to be considered "severe", hail must be 3/4" in diameter (dime-sized) and winds must exceed 58 mph. There weren't too many warnings today, a few in the far north (Ashland/Iron counties ) and a couple west of the viewing area towards Eau Claire.
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