What is going on with the rain this morning? An area of light rain developed last evening and continued through mid morning in much of central Wisconsin, especially in the southeastern part of the area around Stevens Point, Waupaca, Wittenberg, and Rosholt. It turned out rather grey and dreary in the southeast, but not to worry, later this afternoon the rain should end, but not before a couple tenths of an inch in a few spots (here in Wausau it was only 0.05"). It was a weak trough of low pressure than hung together in the face of high pressure and dry air that brought the rainfall. This afternoon high pressure should reassert control and clear the clouds out a bit for tonight and tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening (mainly after 6pm) another storm system will bring a chance of rain, some higher wind, and cooler temps. The mercury should hit 60 tomorrow but then only reach the low 50s on Sunday. The chance of rain on Sunday is about 60% and amounts could be around a quarter inch. On Monday the sunshine should return but then another storm will bring a chance of rain back for Tuesday. The rain, possibly heavy, could continue into Wednesday or Thursday. The extended computer model forecast is a little muddled, so stay tuned to Megan Syner's weekend forecast to find out if the middle of next week will be wet and cool or if the sunshine will return by Wednesday.
Another story that has been a bit muddled is La Nina. It developed rather rapidly and unexpectedly in February of 2007 and lasted longer than most forecasts predicted. Now it is showing signs of weakening. You can read the latest discussion here.Figure 2 shows that 3 of the four NINO regions are still below normal. Looking at Figure 4 you might think that La Nina has already ended, but what really matters is the surface temp. Figure 4 shows the total heat content of the surface all the way down to 300 meters. The total heat content has gone positive, but at the surface it is still below normal and it is the surface temp that affects the weather. Thus La Nina is still there but almost done. Most of the computer models depicted in Figure 5 indicate near neutral conditions as we head into the summer. The official classification for La Nina is -0.50 (or lower) for 3 months in a row. From -0.50 and +0.50 is considered neutral. What does it mean for us? The effects of La Nina and El Nino are less pronounced in the summer than in the winter, so there might not be much deviation from normal. Considering that La Nina seemed to bring cooler than normal temps over the last few months, perhaps temps will be back up to normal this summer as it weakens. It is always interesting to see how a couple of the computer models seem to go off on a tangent (Figure 5) - certainly a reminder of the limitations that yet remain when trying to forecast the long term.
"Computer analyses of global climate have consistently overstated warming in Antarctica, concludes new research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Ohio State University. The study can help scientists improve computer models and determine if Earth's southernmost continent will warm significantly this century, a major research question because of Antarctica's potential impact on global sea-level rise."
I hate to break it to the researchers but the GCMs have consistently over-forecast temperatures for the entire globe. Temperatures did warm up during the 1980s and 1990s, but not as much as the GCMs predicted. Temps have now fallen slightly over the last 10 years (since 1998). The GCMs predicted continual and dramatic rises in temperatures and still do today. Clearly the computer models need some work, and global Armageddon due to AGW is not as certain as Al Gore would have you believe. Perhaps is is the recent poor performance of the GCMs that has prompted some climate modelers to call for a Manhattan style project for climate forecasting. They are calling for a 100 petaflop supercomputer to do climate modeling. Just so you know, the top supercomputer in the world right now only runs at about 1/2 petaflop. So the climate modelers are calling for a huge investment. I would rather see those billions of dollars go into alternative energy research and implementation. I think it would do more good in the long run.
Speaking of alternative energy, there is more good news. Sunrgi, a California company has produced a new solar cell that it says will be competitive on price with fossil fuels. Hmmm. I don't think that is too hard nowadays with the price of oil hitting 125 per barrel.
It was definitely a chilly start to the day with temperatures starting out in the upper 20s across the far north which lead to some heavy frost in spots. The average last frost in the Northwoods is typically mid to late-May so it is not uncommon to see those cool temperatures this time of year. We did have a good bit of sunshine today and that helped temperatures climb into the lower 60s but that is still below average for this time of year. Actually, we are just under 2 degrees below average for the month so far which makes this the 4th month in a row where at least the overally average temperature has been below average. In January we were 0.7 degrees above average overall. It'll be interesting to see how much longer this trend continues, since these types of patterns tend to go in cycles its only a matter of time before we see warmer than average temperatures, right?! Only time will tell...but La Nina conditions will continue to weaken. If you want to read more about the latest La Nina/El Nino conditions, go to this website and check it out! It thought the discussion was rather interesting myself!
The good news is that we are finally seeing more moisture - water levels are higher, grass is greener and hopefully this will lead to an awesome growing season! If you are anxious to get out on the water and do some fishing this weekend you may have to dodge a few showers, especially later Saturday through Sunday. Temperatures will stay on the cool side with readings only in the 50s so make sure you bring a sweatshirt or two along with the rain jackets to stay both warm and dry! As we go into next week we may continue the cooler than average trend will continue and after checking out some of the longer range models we may stay around to slightly below average towards the 3rd week of May! Before I call it a night, I thought this story was rather interesting about what happened to a storm chaser in Texas - you can read the story by clicking on this link!
That is all for tonight, have a fantastic evening!
I don't have a lot of time for a super blog post today because I was busy upgrading our computer systems here at the weather office. The most important thing I want to cover is the price of oil. OK, I know you are rolling your eyes. I have beaten this topic like a dead horse (aside: anyone know where that saying comes from? Why would anyone beat a dead horse, I guess it is more ethical than beating a live horse). I just want to make sure everyone knows and realizes that cheap gas is not coming back anytime soon. Stop dreaming about it now! If we are lucky, new wells will come online, OPEC nations will be peaceful, and the price of oil will drop below $100 a barrel later this year. Even if it drops down to $90 a barrel, we are still talking about $3.00 per gallon of gas. What is more likely is that Iran will be combative, unrest will disrupt oil coming out of Nigeria, a couple hurricanes will disrupt production in the gulf of Mexico this summer and the price of oil could jump to $150 to 200 per barrel, which would translate to $4.50 to 5.00 per gallon of gas (maybe more). Dr. Gray from Colorado State predicts a 69% chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. this year, so you had better be prepared for higher gas prices. No amount of whining is going to help. Taxing the oil companies will only make things worse. It is time to make dramatic changes in the way you get around if you want to keep money in your pocket. I mentioned electric vehicles earlier in the week, but there are also the old standbys of car pooling and public transportation.
On the positive side, investment in wind and solar energy continues on a hot pace. The problem with solar panels is that they are expensive. Thankfully some MIT students are making new solar products with a focus on cost. Their solar collector is meant to be cheap, durable, and easy to set-up, but it is not meant for home use, since it concentrates the sun's power up to 1,000 times. Businesses and utilities will benefit the most.
I hate to end on a down note, but it still looks like some rain for the weekend, beginning late Saturday afternoon and continuing through Sunday. I put the chance at 50%. Even if the rain misses our area, it will still be cool and breezy (especially on Sunday). High temps will reach the mid to upper 50s on Saturday and only 50 on Sunday. You might want to plan some indoor activities for Mother's Day.
Update on the snow contest. Yesterday was the warmest day of the year so far with a high of 77 in Wausau and 81 in Stevens Point. Warm enough to melt some snow on Rib Mountain but not all of it. You can always take a look at the Corporate Cove skycam view on the WAOW weather page to gauge your chances of winning. (the deadline for entering was May 2nd, so if this is the first time you are reading about the contest, you are too late to enter). Looking at the snow on the Mountain right now I would expect the winning date to be after Memorial Day, and most likely in early June. The snow melt dates over the last 3 years have been June7th, June 6th, and May 25th. If the weather stays cool, this year it could be as late as June 10th. Some 80 degree weather and heavy rain could change this in a hurry, so a final melt in May is still possible.
With cooler weather developing over the next few days, the snow will be in no hurry to melt. High temps will be in the low 60s today and tomorrow and only around 60 on Friday. Unfortunately, the coolest weather will develop over the weekend. The mercury will only reach the mid 50s on Saturday and the low 50s on Sunday. Along with the cool temps there is a chance of showers as well. If we are lucky the shower activity will hold off until late afternoon Saturday. Right now I am calling for a 40% chance late Saturday through Sunday. Early next week high temps should rise back up into the 60s.
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) News:
Four additions to the big list of bad things that will (or have) occurred because of AGW. First up is the tropical storm that hit Burma (Myanmar). You know someone was going to blame it on AGW, and it turns out Al Gore was one of the first....at least publicly anyway. You can read an excerpt of his comments here. Perhaps he meant to say something on the order of this "type" of strong storm will become more common if the world warms up and ocean levels rise, blah, blah, blah, but it sounds like he is placing direct blame on AGW. This has caused at least one environmental blogger to cry foul and tell Gore to stop saying these things. In any case it will go on the list. It is a very terrible disaster and the UN is categorizing it as a major major disaster. With the death toll above 20,000 it is one of the bigger disasters of the last couple of years, but it is not unprecedented for that part of the world. Over the las 10 years I have reported on flooding/storm disasters on this scale almost every year. The plain fact is that hundreds of millions of people live along the coast in India, Bangladesh, and Burma. Infrastructure is poor. Warning systems are almost non-existent. After each disaster, people move back into these dangerous areas because the land is fertile. A couple years later another storm moves through and kills another 20,000. This particular disaster has been been amplified by the military dictatorship that rules Burma. India warned the Burmese government that the storm was coming but the dictatorship did nothing to warn the people. Now after the storm the leaders don't want to allow foreigners in because, well, because they are paranoid dictators. They would rather see people die than have them interacting with foreigners.
The second item that can go on the list is rather interesting. Apparently, toxic chemicals like DDT and PCBs are coming out of melting glaciers. According to the article, the amounts are not enough to cause detrimental effects in Penguins, but some people are raising alarm. It goes on the list.
Third is bugs baking in the tropics. And, you thought the worst was going to occur in the arctic. According to this study, tropical insects cannot handle hotter weather. I know it doesn't sound like common sense, but it goes on the list.
Last but not least, the cute and cuddly Koala bear is threatened by AGW. More carbon dioxide will lead toeucalyptus leaves becoming less nutritious and Koala bears will die. So here is the updated list of bad things that will (or have) occur(ed) because of AGW:
(eucalyptus leaves will become less nutritious and Koala bears will die, the 2008 tropical storm disaster in Myanmar, Tropical bugs will not reproduce, toxic chemicals will pour out of glaciers, Narwhals will go extinct, more deadly algae blooms, more poverty, a massive increase in volcanic activity, new disease outbreaks from previously frozen corpses, irreversibly alter water circulation in Lake Tahoe, dramatically decreased rice production, fewer flowers in the Rocky Mountains, the Butterfly fish will starve, transportation system will be ruined, air pollution related deaths will increase, tropical fish could go deaf, more “ocean deserts”, more tundra wildfires, collapsing oceanic food webs, sharks devastating Antarctic sea life, the drying up of Lake Mead by 2021, plant-devouring insect invasions, poor food quality, increased human mortality, more solastalgia/mental illness, more wars, the past 1993 conflict in Somalia, more intense heat waves, more heat deaths, polar bears starving, Isle Royale Moose dying, Walruses dying, Penguins starving (including King penguins), Australian bats dying, more hurricanes, less hurricanes, more intense and bigger hurricanes, more stormy weather, rising oceans, more acidic oceans, California wildfires, more droughts, more floods, future disastrous declines in food production, coral reefs (hard and soft) dying, enormous extinctions of plant and animal species, massive loss of fish in the Bering Sea, the earth literally being torn apart, Amazon deforestation, a bigger ozone hole, a smaller ozone whole, less fresh water, more obesity, more hunger, more asthma, more allergies, more infectious disease, …more to come)
Related to AGW is this little research report: Cooler weather might develop for the next decade. Newsflash, cooler weather already developed over the last decade (since 1998). Notice the graph in the article linked above stops at the year 2000. If the graph showed temps over the last 8 years you would see a slight decline. This indicates the complexity of modeling the atmosphere with supercomputers. Just a couple years ago (not to mention back in 1998, the warmest year for the planet) not many climate scientists would have forecast a pause in AGW or a slight decline. All the computer models indicated an upward trend pretty much forever. Some of the problem has to do with the model inputs, as I have detailed extensively previously in the blog.
We just got in a few more pictures from the hailstorm that hit Marathon City back on April 25th. That evening we had several reports of hail over golf ball size. That was pretty amazing, but even more amazing was the shape of the hail stones. In any case, hail is formed from super-cooled water droplets that freeze on contact with anything solid(dust, dirt particles, etc.) within the cloud. Strong updrafts in the cloud, send the forming hail stone high in the cloud where it gathers more supercooled water drops, in very cold temperatures. That day we had very cold temperatures aloft, which aided the hailstones size and shape. Once an updraft weakens, the hailstone will fall through the cloud until another updraft pics it up. The hail stone can cycle several times in the cloud, each time becoming larger. The stone may also latch on to other stones, making a more jagged stone, which was certainly the case here. I hope you enjoy the pictures, and I hope most of you in Marathon City made it through with out a lot of damage.
You can click on the images to make them larger...
Hooray for Tracy Riehle! She is one of the first people in Wausau to go electric - in transportation. Teresa Mackin covered this story for Newsline yesterday and here is the video:
Good story Teresa! It is very relevant during these times of high gas prices. What Tracy Riehle has done is something I am planning as well - to drive an electric car in town. The type of car Tracy has is defined as a Neighborhood Electric Vehicle (NEV). It only travels as fast as 35 mph. Some of you who live out in the country or who commute a long way to work might be saying "this will never work for me". Don't be so sure. A large variety of electric cars are coming to market. I have talked about the very expensive Tesla and Lightning, but also about the cheaper Zap and conversion kits. One that I haven't mentioned is Th!nk. It is a Norwegian car company that plans to bring electric cars to the U.S. as soon as next year. Check out the website and you will find that this little beauty can travel 124 miles at speeds up to 62 mph. You can find NEVs for around $10,000 or less. The larger faster sedans will probably cost in the $20,000 to 40,000 range. Getting an electric car makes sense on so many different levels I can't list them all today, but if you are a regular reader of the blog you probably already know anyway. Electric cars are a better long term choice than biodiesel, hydrogen, hybrids, compressed air, and ethanol.
The main point is that GAS IS EXPENSIVE, and the price of gas IS NOT GOING DOWN ANYTIME SOON! Unbelievably, I still run into people who think the price of gas will go down, down to what it was 10 years ago - like a dollar a gallon. Wake up and smell the roses. The price of gas is more likely to hit $5 a gallon within the next year than drop down to $2.50. Doing gas protests or sitting around complaining are completely useless activities. Taxing oil companies will only make the price go higher and hurt american companies along the way. Tracy Riehle took matters into her own hands and now she is saving nearly $100 a week (nearly $5,000 per year!). I took matters into my own hands by buying a bicycle. It is about time more people did the same.
While some people would rather just sit around and complain or push for useless government tax schemes, many businesses are hard at work saving energy. Believe it or not, internet data centers are one of the biggest users of electricity in the U.S. Network companies are using software (and in some cases new hardware) to cutback on energy usage. Here are a couple of stories (story 1story 2) about using simple power savings modes on servers to cut energy usage up to half. At the annual SID conference display and TV makers are focusing on green solutions to make their products more energy efficient. Here is some recent research at the University of Illinois showing some promise for using copper nanotubes in new displays. This could also dramatically cut the electricity demand of new big screen and small screen TVs. Smarter thermostats are also in the works.
In the United Arab Emirates they plan to turn an entire city into a zero emissions city. In order to help in this effort they are banning cars in the zero emmissions city. Only public transportation will be available, although "personal transportation pods" will also be used. I suppose it it easier in the UAE to accomplish such a mammoth undertaking because they certainly have a lot of sunshine for solar power.
If you had solar panels on your house, today would be a good day for collecting energy from the sun. High temps should reach 70 for the first time this May. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area tonight and then cooler and drier weather will persist from Wednesday afternoon through Friday. There is still a chance of rain over the weekend, but it is starting to look like it might hold off until late Saturday so the weekend might not be a washout.
The National Weather Service has now confirmed that not one but two tornadoes touched down in Columbia county last Friday. One of the tornadoes touched down roughly 3 miles west of Wyocena. This tornado was very brief and weak, rating an EF-0. The second of two tornadoes had a much longer track. This tornado touched down 2 miles east of Dekorra and traveled 27 miles in a northeasterly track. The national weather service estimates the tornado was on the ground for roughly 36 minutes. This tornado obtained a EF-1 status with winds around 100 miles per hour. I am quite surprised the tornado lasted such a long time while only reaching an EF-1 status. Thankfully the tornado tracked through mainly rural territory. For more in depth information on the tornadoes, check out this N.W.S. link.
I wasn't able to catch any fish on Saturday, although I didn't think I would have much of a chance. The streams and rivers were running high and that usually makes it kind-of tough to catch fish. Also, I went to a rather poor fishing spot, in order to stay away from the crowds. That's OK. There will be many more opportunities as the weeks of spring and summer roll along. Rivers will probably stay high early this week because more rain is possible, but then late in the week the levels should subside a bit with dry and cooler conditions.
The rain early this week will be generated along a stationary front currently lying across central Wisconsin. Some scattered light showers will move through the area tonight. Those people that end up under one of the showers could end up with a tenth of an inch or so. A chance of heavier rain will occur late from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, especially in the southern half of the area. Rainfall amounts during this time frame could be 0.25 to 0.50 inches in the northwoods, while in the south (south of Wausau) we could be talking about over an inch. Depending on the amount of warmth and sunshine on Tuesday afternoon, there could even be a risk of severe weather in the southern half of the area.
Rain should end before midday Wednesday, then it looks like dry and cooler conditions through Friday. High temps will be in the upper 50s to low 60s from Wednesday through Friday. Unfortunately, current projections indicate another cool weekend ahead with a chance of showers on both Saturday and Sunday.
Space News:
You might remember a couple months ago I reported that public support for Spaceport America was very slim in New Mexico. This seemed rather strange considering the space/UFO history of the region. Apparently there are three counties pondering support for the Spaceport. The first county barely passed the measure. According to this article, Sierra county has now approved funding and Otero county is the only one left and they will vote this November. Many of the plans for commercial/private spaceflight revolve around the establishment of a spaceport other than those operated by the government, so all of you space enthusiasts - keep your fingers crossed.
Finally, NASA has announced plans for a new probe to be sent to the sun. This one would set a record for how close it will operate to the sun. Read about it here.
Last week was so busy, I didn't have time to do an April review, so here it is a little late. April went into the climate books as the 5th out of the last 6th months that have been below normal. January was the only month since last October with above normal temps, and it was only a degree above normal. April was below normal, but it was not record setting except for one daily precipitation record. That was 1.25 inches on the 18th. Precipitation was above normal, which I consider a good thing because the last 5 years have been below normal. We are now above normal for the Spring season and the year. To give you an idea of how cool the month was at times, we had 9 different days when we had at least a trace of snow (in Wausau). Here are the numbers:
Hopefully you got to get outside and enjoy the pleasant weather today - temperatures were seasonal and sunshine persisted across the region. The only exception is in the Northwoods where there were a few more clouds and even some showers. We will continue to see a chance of showers and some thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening, Tuesday and again on Wednesday but it will keep everything looking green so that is a good thing! I was excited because I noticed some buds on the trees and I am looking forward to seeing everything bloom! A quiet weather period is expected Thursday and Friday and temperatures will be just a few degrees below average - closer to 60. There is not too much to blog about tonight plus I've been busy finishing up the semester so once the semester is finished I'll be back to writing longer posts. In the meantime, I found this neat article about how NOAA is developing new tools to measure climate change - to check it out click on this link. That is all for tonight, have a great week!
Thanks to everyone for sending in their prediction for when the snow will completely melt from Rib Mountain - I don't know an exact number but we received over 1000 entries!!! Now we get to wait and watch the snow melt away! Well, today was the first day of fishing season and it wasn't a fantastic start weatherwise with showers and cool temperatures. Actually, I think I recall Justin telling me that good fishing conditions are cool and cloudy days where there is a little bit of drizzle or light rain showers so maybe it wasn't too bad of fishing weather! However, if you like to be out when temperatures are warmer and more sunshine is present then try to get out tomorrow! Even though we will start out with temperatures in the 20s north and 30s elsewhere, afternoon readings will climb to around 60 degrees. Abundant sunshine will persist for the first half of the day with a few more clouds rolling in during the afternoon hours as a weak upper-level disturbance skips across northern Wisconsin. There may be an isolated shower in the far north, but it is a pretty small chance and most will stay dry. This is a short post tonight, but I'll be back with more on Sunday! Have a great night!
What is going on with the rain this morning? An area of light rain developed last evening and continued through mid morning in much of central Wisconsin, especially in the southeastern part of the area around Stevens Point, Waupaca, Wittenberg, and Rosholt. It turned out rather grey and dreary in the southeast, but not to worry, later this afternoon the rain should end, but not before a couple tenths of an inch in a few spots (here in Wausau it was only 0.05"). It was a weak trough of low pressure than hung together in the face of high pressure and dry air that brought the rainfall. This afternoon high pressure should reassert control and clear the clouds out a bit for tonight and tomorrow morning. By tomorrow evening (mainly after 6pm) another storm system will bring a chance of rain, some higher wind, and cooler temps. The mercury should hit 60 tomorrow but then only reach the low 50s on Sunday. The chance of rain on Sunday is about 60% and amounts could be around a quarter inch. On Monday the sunshine should return but then another storm will bring a chance of rain back for Tuesday. The rain, possibly heavy, could continue into Wednesday or Thursday. The extended computer model forecast is a little muddled, so stay tuned to Megan Syner's weekend forecast to find out if the middle of next week will be wet and cool or if the sunshine will return by Wednesday.
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